Ytd 0-0.
20 Sep 03 18:00
2.00 ARIS Saloniki v Xanthi 0:1 1.70.
1.5 units on Xanthi +1.
under @ 1.65 for 0.5 units.
half time draw @ 2.1 for 0.5 units.
This line is insane, aris is one of those greek teams plagued by serious financial difficulties, they nearly failed to pay the greek irs to get permission to compete this year, all their better players got transfers to other teams, and those remained are still unpaid. Their squad is made up of half their youth team. On the other hand Xanthi is as per usual a half decent team, one of the most financialy sound teams in the league, with some good talent, a very capable coach, and a spectacular training center in their home town. Admittedly results have not been going their way, but they haven't been too bad either, a draw with uefa contender panionios away 0-0, a marginal loss 1-0 by cl fame panathinaikos, and a more clear 2-0 loss to newcomers chalchidona away. Aris besides a morale boosting 3-0 win over poor proodeftiki, have lost 1-0 to relegation prone Akratitos and drew 0-0 with newcomers paniliakos.
To cut a long story short, neither form, nor injuries, nor team quality warrants a whole goal handicap against xanthi. Xanthi might have a couple of key absences but against aris's juniors i can't see how that could weigh this much against them. Add the fact that xanthi last year was one of the best away teams, and that neither teams score or accept goals that easily, and it seems the harsh and unfair gamebookers vig on the handicap for xanthi is a good betting offer. Hence the 1 and a half units.
I like another couple of betting options here, the under at 1.65 being an obvious choice, maybe too obvious and hence only for a half unit, and the half time draw at 2.1 which imo has much more than 50% chances.
Kallithea v Panionios
0.35 units on the draw at 3.0
Small bet on the draw here which seems like the most possible result by far. Panionios has not conveinced me yet they have what it takes for an away win over much improved kallithea, and the draw is worth a punt.
21/9
OFI Crete v Chalkidona
Ofi at 1.65 for 1 unit.
Under at 2.0 for 0.75 units.
Ofi has shown distinct signs of improvent, and on home ground should have no problem with newcomers chalkidona. I have confidence in both coach skanzi and a few very talented players in the ofi roster.
For some reason gamebookers have made the under a dog with 2.0 odds. This is downright wrong, except for a the three top 3 teams (aek, panathinaikos and olympiakos) no other greek team should have their over odds at such a high price in the low scoring and bad quality greek league. Sure enough ofi had 4 goals against them by iraklis, but they were playing with a player less from the 10th minute or so, and a 1-3 defeat by umbrella team panathinaikos. Chalchidona is not really what you call a boxing sack defensively. I am not saying the bet will hit, how could i, but there's a huge overlay in the odds here and i am not willing to let it pass.
PAOK Saloniki v Prodeftiki
Under at 2.2 for 1 unit.
Paok half time at 1.6 for 0.5 units.
Another insane line, this one must be one of the most, well, out of line lines i ve seen in a long time. How can you rate the under at 2.2 when both teams have gone 4-2 unders in their games so far, and the overs where only marginal 3-0 and 2-1, it's really beyond me. Proodeftiki might be seriously weakened since last year, but so is paok. Proodeftiki can't and doesn't score besides the odd goal, and are one of the most defencive teams in the league. Paok have a hard time scoring too. When i first saw this line i was just about to call and inform them they had a bad line up.
I am also betting paok to be winning by the end of the first half, i find the odds at 1.3 for a win too low, and reckon paok is worth a small bet on the halftime.
Ionikos v Iraklis Saloniki
Iraklis halftime at 2.9 for 0.35 units.
Here we got a team that just drew at home with cl aek 2-2 and played some great football at times during the game. Their morale is high, their quality in terms of players much better, they got a far better and more experienced coach than ionikos. The reason i am not betting the three way line and choosing a half time bet is that they do have some key absences. But i figure if they are to win they have to play well and score from first half, otherwise i think a halftime draw will be instrumental for ionikos to get something out of this game. Well worth the punt at 2.9.
bol. Jack.
[This message was edited by JackDee on September 27, 2003 at 10:18 AM.]
20 Sep 03 18:00
2.00 ARIS Saloniki v Xanthi 0:1 1.70.
1.5 units on Xanthi +1.
under @ 1.65 for 0.5 units.
half time draw @ 2.1 for 0.5 units.
This line is insane, aris is one of those greek teams plagued by serious financial difficulties, they nearly failed to pay the greek irs to get permission to compete this year, all their better players got transfers to other teams, and those remained are still unpaid. Their squad is made up of half their youth team. On the other hand Xanthi is as per usual a half decent team, one of the most financialy sound teams in the league, with some good talent, a very capable coach, and a spectacular training center in their home town. Admittedly results have not been going their way, but they haven't been too bad either, a draw with uefa contender panionios away 0-0, a marginal loss 1-0 by cl fame panathinaikos, and a more clear 2-0 loss to newcomers chalchidona away. Aris besides a morale boosting 3-0 win over poor proodeftiki, have lost 1-0 to relegation prone Akratitos and drew 0-0 with newcomers paniliakos.
To cut a long story short, neither form, nor injuries, nor team quality warrants a whole goal handicap against xanthi. Xanthi might have a couple of key absences but against aris's juniors i can't see how that could weigh this much against them. Add the fact that xanthi last year was one of the best away teams, and that neither teams score or accept goals that easily, and it seems the harsh and unfair gamebookers vig on the handicap for xanthi is a good betting offer. Hence the 1 and a half units.
I like another couple of betting options here, the under at 1.65 being an obvious choice, maybe too obvious and hence only for a half unit, and the half time draw at 2.1 which imo has much more than 50% chances.
Kallithea v Panionios
0.35 units on the draw at 3.0
Small bet on the draw here which seems like the most possible result by far. Panionios has not conveinced me yet they have what it takes for an away win over much improved kallithea, and the draw is worth a punt.
21/9
OFI Crete v Chalkidona
Ofi at 1.65 for 1 unit.
Under at 2.0 for 0.75 units.
Ofi has shown distinct signs of improvent, and on home ground should have no problem with newcomers chalkidona. I have confidence in both coach skanzi and a few very talented players in the ofi roster.
For some reason gamebookers have made the under a dog with 2.0 odds. This is downright wrong, except for a the three top 3 teams (aek, panathinaikos and olympiakos) no other greek team should have their over odds at such a high price in the low scoring and bad quality greek league. Sure enough ofi had 4 goals against them by iraklis, but they were playing with a player less from the 10th minute or so, and a 1-3 defeat by umbrella team panathinaikos. Chalchidona is not really what you call a boxing sack defensively. I am not saying the bet will hit, how could i, but there's a huge overlay in the odds here and i am not willing to let it pass.
PAOK Saloniki v Prodeftiki
Under at 2.2 for 1 unit.
Paok half time at 1.6 for 0.5 units.
Another insane line, this one must be one of the most, well, out of line lines i ve seen in a long time. How can you rate the under at 2.2 when both teams have gone 4-2 unders in their games so far, and the overs where only marginal 3-0 and 2-1, it's really beyond me. Proodeftiki might be seriously weakened since last year, but so is paok. Proodeftiki can't and doesn't score besides the odd goal, and are one of the most defencive teams in the league. Paok have a hard time scoring too. When i first saw this line i was just about to call and inform them they had a bad line up.
I am also betting paok to be winning by the end of the first half, i find the odds at 1.3 for a win too low, and reckon paok is worth a small bet on the halftime.
Ionikos v Iraklis Saloniki
Iraklis halftime at 2.9 for 0.35 units.
Here we got a team that just drew at home with cl aek 2-2 and played some great football at times during the game. Their morale is high, their quality in terms of players much better, they got a far better and more experienced coach than ionikos. The reason i am not betting the three way line and choosing a half time bet is that they do have some key absences. But i figure if they are to win they have to play well and score from first half, otherwise i think a halftime draw will be instrumental for ionikos to get something out of this game. Well worth the punt at 2.9.
bol. Jack.
[This message was edited by JackDee on September 27, 2003 at 10:18 AM.]
